What Francis Ngannou must do to beat Tyson Fury: ‘Uncork those big shots’
Francis Ngannou during his mesmerising UFC run
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On Saturday night, two fighters who embody the word heavyweight – every sense of it – will clash in Saudi Arabia. In one corner will be the reigning WBC champion, one of the biggest names in boxing, Tyson Fury. In the other will be the former UFC champion, a man deemed the hardest hitter in combat-sports history, Francis Ngannou.
This crossover bout has its detractors yet still holds an air of intrigue, all based on the ‘what if’: What if Ngannou can land on Fury? What if one of those monstrous hands touches the Briton’s chin with the velocity and malicious intent that have come to define Ngannou’s fighting career, and which carried the Cameroonian to the UFC heavyweight title?
For all his evasive guile, Fury, 35, has been put down numerous times, but he has never been beaten – not even by fighters with much greater boxing pedigree than the 37-year-old Ngannou. The experiential gap understandably has most viewers doubting Ngannou’s chances in Riyadh, where he faces Fury in a proper, professional boxing match; but what if?
And if Ngannou is to win, how will he? Attacking Fury to the body? Battering him in the clinch? Backing him into a corner? Alex Pattle asked former two-weight world-champion boxer Carl Frampton, and Dan Hardy, an ex-UFC title challenger who now works with the Professional Fighters League – the MMA promotion where Ngannou will fight in 2024.
Here’s what they had to say…
AP: What was your initial reaction to the fight being announced?
DH: “I was shocked. I expected Ngannou to have another fight before Tyson Fury, but I think it’s the wise thing to do to step straight in and keep the element of surprise on your side. If he’d have gone in there and fought someone else, Tyson would’ve been able to get reads before the fight even started. Jumping in at the deep end, even though it’s a bit crazy, increases his chances of winning. That was my first thought: It’s a surprise that it’s happening, but relief that Ngannou is getting it on his first shot.”
CF: “Initially I was disappointed, and that’s kind of taming it down a bit. Obviously we were hoping for Fury vs Oleksandr Usyk and that fell through, but now I’ve come round to the idea that this is a huge event. And we’ve got Fury vs Usyk off the back of it. I was always hopeful that fight would come about at some point, and I don’t wanna be talking as if Ngannou is gonna be a complete walkover for Fury, but I’m okay about it [because] the Fury vs Usyk fight has been made for some point in the future. Also, the money the guys are making with this event…”
AP: Do fans need to be more understanding of fighters taking ‘money fights’?
Carl Frampton, left, and Dan Hardy discussing Fury vs Ngannou
CF: “Maybe a little bit. Boxing fans in particular are very opinionated, and I understand that they’re frustrated. But if you’re Tyson Fury and someone’s offering you a fight of this magnitude against a boxing debutant, and there are talks of $30m – and $10m for Ngannou – how do you turn that down? It’s almost too good to be true.”
DH: “I think it’s a bit different for MMA fans, because we’re still in new ground; the changes that Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor made in fighters’ purses and expectations for purses… as a matchmaker, I’m still dealing with the repercussions of that! Fighters want ridiculous amounts of money, but the money is out there to be made by certain superstars. I honestly think it’s easier for a layman fan to understand why fighters would take these fights, because they focus so much more on the money. I think it’s more the purists who go, ‘I’m not interested in these fights!’ [To the layman], the money and pay-per-view buys almost represent the value of the fighter; to the purists, the value of the fighter is based on their technical ability and achievements.”
CF: “I hate to use the term ‘casual fan’, but there’s a big difference between the purists and just the casual fan. I think you’ll win back [the purists] with Fury vs Usyk, but it’s all a bit trivial almost, because [most] fans are fickle. I’m expecting Fury to beat Ngannou and then fight Usyk, and it’ll almost be like the talk and criticism of the Ngannou fight will go away.”
AP: Do crossover events like Tommy Fury vs KSI and Logan Paul vs Dillon Danis risk putting fans off fights like Fury vs Ngannou?
Ngannou, right, at an open workout in Riyadh this week
DH: “I personally think it’s all on the same spectrum – just at different points on the spectrum. That Misfits Boxing card… I’ll be honest, I was able to make peace with that whole genre of combat sports much easier after that event, because it’s more like pro wrestling. The audience there, they’re not gonna buy a ticket to see ‘Canelo’ Alvarez; they’re not there for that, they’re there for the drama – for the security getting involved, for the plexiglass cages they put them in at the face-offs. It’s theatre with a combat-sports flavour.”
AP: What is Ngannou’s chance of winning – as a percentage – in your opinion?
CF: “There’s a lot of boxers who are almost anti-MMA, and I’m not. I understand what this is: I understand that Fury is a lifelong boxer, fighting a guy who’s had to perfect many different styles in MMA, so in that sense Ngnannou doesn’t have much of a chance. But to say that he has zero chance, I think, would be very, very wrong – because he’s a big, athletic man who can punch hard. He has a chance, but it’s very small. I hope I’m not being disrespectful to Francis; if you flip it on its head and do it in a cage, then it’s the same odds but reversed [in his favour]. It’s just, when you try to rationalise it, it’s his boxing debut – and it’s against maybe the best heavyweight boxer on the planet.”
DH: “We’re definitely in single digits when it comes to percentages, but it’s the ‘what if’ that we’re tuning in for, right? Even if it’s a 0.1 per cent chance that Ngannou is gonna land that shot, we’re all gonna sit and watch in case that happens. If it does, then he’s got the power to knock Fury out. The reason I feel this is an intriguing fight is because… if you look at Ngannou against the likes of Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who’s got over 80 kickboxing matches and moves with very traditional patterns, Rozenstruik was taken out very, very quickly – and ferociously – because Ngannou flew at him, coming from all kinds of different angles. You just can’t predict those things.
Ngannou knocked out Jairzinho Rozenstruik in 20 seconds
“Against Deontay Wilder, Fury was dealing with someone who’s got ferocious punching power but who’s got some basic fundamentals that make him a little bit predictable. If Ngannou starts patient and then starts winging those big shots from weird angles, which Tyson’s probably not anticipating, that elevates his chances – but they’re still incredibly slim.”
CF: “That’s the thing. High-end boxers often talk about when they spar novice guys, it’s all really unorthodox; they’re not taught to defend against shots that are coming from [certain angles], and it can be a bit awkward at times.”
AP: We know that Ngannou needs to knock out Fury to win. But how does he knock out Fury?
DH: “If I was trying to solve this problem for Ngannou, I’d say: We’re working with 90-degree corners in a boxing ring, so that’s something I’d like to work towards. It’s gonna be difficult to back Tyson up, of course, and he’s very good at standing on his back foot and making his head feel like it’s a long way away. So, Ngannou has to work to the body and vary his target to potentially bring Fury’s hands down. Ngannou has thunderous punching, so if he lands to the ribs, he might open up an opportunity. If he’s just head-hunting, it’s not gonna happen. Play a little bit of boxing, but when it comes to uncorking those big shots, really commit to them. And ideally put Tyson in a corner, up against the ropes.”
CF: “With Ngannou’s MMA background and knowledge of wrestling and grappling, he will have success when they’re in really close quarters and Tyson’s trying to hold on. This might be something that Tyson’s never experienced before, where someone can get out of a clinch rather easily and land a shot. Ngannou can’t stand off and outbox Tyson, that’s not gonna happen.”
Fury was knocked down four times across three fights with Deontay Wilder
AP: Ngannou last fought in MMA in January 2022 and has largely been in boxing training since. What kind of MMA fighter will he be when he makes his PFL debut in 2024?
DH: “I think we’re gonna see improvements in his footwork and his fundamental boxing. I think that’ll be a byproduct of him doing all these rounds on the pads with Mike Tyson, Dewey Cooper and others. But I don’t think he’s necessarily going to neglect his grappling game, because it was never really the prominent skillset for him anyway. I think he’ll return to working on those things when necessary, because everyone who fights Francis knows that they need to take him down – you don’t wanna be dealing with that power. He knows that whoever he’s fighting is most likely gonna be the one to force the grappling exchanges. Then it’s about who the opponent is gonna be. $2m is a lot of money in MMA, even if you have to fight Francis for it!”
Fury v Ngannou will be exclusively live from Riyadh Season, Saudi Arabia on TNT Sports Box Office, Saturday 28 October. For more info: tntsports.co.uk/boxoffice
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